Karzai has agreed to a runoff after the Afghan International Election Commission found that he didn't receive more than 50 percent of the vote after all. Nate Silver has the numbers from the fraud investigation, and they don't look good for Karzai.

But I'm a little surprised that Karzai agreed so easily to a runoff. It's almost an admission of fraud on his part. The statement attributed to him doesn't even attempt to defend his legitimacy or tactics in the election: "We welcome the decision made by the Independent Election Commission, we believe the session is legitimate, legal and according to the constitution of Afghanistan."

I'm guessing he's under some serious pressure from Washington, where a lot of people aren't happy with Karzai's leadership. I'm curious what happens next, though. I don't know if Abdullah Abdullah can win the runoff, and if he does, the results may have a legitimacy problem of their own. Will it be seen by certain Afghans as being rigged by the Americans this time?

If nothing else, the delay buys the Obama administration more time to make a decision about the next step in Afghanistan.