When Obama hit his peak numbers a week or two ago, conventional wisdom said the race would tighten somewhat as we got closer to the election. But as has happened so many times this year, conventional wisdom has turned out wrong, so far.
Above is an aggregate of all national polls taken this year. While McCain seems to be improving from his nadir of two weeks ago, we haven't seen a corresponding drop in Obama's numbers. They remain steady above 50%, and if anything continue to improve. McCain's only real hope is to cut Obama down. He's thrown a lot against the wall in recent weeks (Ayers, socialism, etc.), and nothing seems to stick to the Teflon Candidate.
What's remarkable, when you look at the average of polls throughout the year, is how stable the race has been since Obama sealed the nomination. We heard a lot, until recently, about how volatile and neck-and-neck the race was, but the graph shows Obama with a pretty steady lead, minus the period immediately after the Republican convention. It seemed at the time as if the Palin pick had changed the dynamics of the race. But looking back, it now looks just like a bounce.
The state polls have been less consistent, however, and that's where Obama is really opening up significant leads. He is ahead by double-digits in most states won by John Kerry in 2004, and is pulling ahead in swing states like Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania. Hell, there have been three polls this week showing McCain's lead in Arizona down to single-digits (the closest had it at two points). It's very unlikely he'll win Arizona, but at this point an Obama landslide may be more likely than a tightening race.
Nate Silver, the best at this sort of analysis, says the following has to happen before we can expect a close outcome on election night: "John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania."
He currently projects a 3.3% chance of that happening.
UPDATE: Of course, almost immediately after I post this, the graph starts to show some tightening. Go figure.
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Comments (2)
I can hardly remember an election when I've waited so long to decide on my choice for President. One week from today, I'll cast my vote for Sen. McCain, and if anyone cares, here's why:
1. MCCAIN SEEKS TO LIMIT ABORTION - Sen. Obama's position may be called the "audacity of hopelessness." He is out of step with his own running mate, Joe Biden, who in 2003 with 63 other senators voted to ban the practice of partial birth abortion. Under a President Obama, a Federal Freedom of Choice Act would increase the number of abortions performed annually, defying the "safe, legal, and rare" rhetoric that is often heard by abortion's proponents. On the other hand, Sen. McCain has consistently voted to protect the unborn, the right to life prerequisite to all other rights that we enjoy in this country.
2. MCCAIN FAVORS CUTS IN MILITARY SPENDING - He has been very clear that we don't need new weapons systems that cost billions, and would cut them from the bloated Pentagon defense budget. That money can be used elsewhere, perhaps to expand peaceful programs that are working, such as PEPFAR, the U.S. initiative against the spread of AIDS in Africa.
3. MCCAIN IS CORRECT ON IMMIGRATION AND GLOBAL WARMING. He seeks a path to citizenship for those who are living in the U.S. illegally, and wants to tighten border control. Also, he acknowledges the need for "Creation Care," that we must take care of this earth, as God's stewards, and this includes keeping the thermostat in-check.
4. MCCAIN WOULD MAKE THE GOVERNMENT LIVE WITHIN ITS MEANS. There is a huge disconnect between the average American who must carefully budget and Washington, that spends like there's no tomorrow. We need a Dave Ramsey approach to federal spending! McCain has the record to show he'd stand-up to wasteful spending.
On these four issues, Sen. McCain is dead-on. Together, they tip my vote in his direction.
Posted by Manchester2 | October 28, 2008 11:00 PM
Manchester2, I have a feeling those "reasons" were posted from pre-scripted talking points, but I'll go ahead and bite on one issue. There's no such thing as "abortion proponents." No one wants more abortions, least of all Senator Obama. Many people do, however, feel that it should be a choice made by a woman and her family, rather than the federal government.
And if you think McCain will be a more peaceful president than Obama, you haven't been paying attention.
Posted by Elyas | October 29, 2008 8:56 AM