A week ago I would have predicted the Democratic race would end after today. Momentum has consistently been on Obama's side, and it looked like, given his superior ground game and the time he had to prepare, he would come away with a clear win in Texas and a very close outcome in Ohio. A lot has changed in a week.
Whether it was the fear-mongering 3 a.m. ad, the Farrakhan question during the debate, Hillary's Saturday Night Live appearance (and Tina Fey's on-air endorsement), more intense media scrutiny of Obama, or something else entirely, momentum has shifted her way in the last couple of days.
My prediction: Obama takes Vermont; Rhode Island is very close but breaks Hillary's way. I think she'll have a double-digit win in Ohio, which she'll point to as a major victory. Texas will determine whether the race really is just getting started or if it's time for the Democratic party to unite behind Obama. Whatever happens, he'll walk away from the state with more delegates (even if she wins the popular vote during the primary), and there's almost no way for her to catch him before the convention when it comes to pledged delegates.
It's been an exciting and historical race, but the longer it goes on, the less the candidates, the media, and the voters focus on the big picture and actual issues. The tone has become more poisonous lately, the pundits have become more intolerable, and the I'm ready for this to end. Let's hope my predictions are wrong.
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Comments (2)
What do you think of Sam Power's comments and resignation?
Posted by Car | March 8, 2008 9:59 AM
I was at a work conference and missed most of the Sam Powers ordeal. From what I know, I don't really think it's a big deal. It was a mistake, yes, but it was blown way out of proportion. I think her apology/explanation was enough: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx1l0LnI7HU
Posted by Elyas | March 10, 2008 9:55 AM