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October 2003: "Can Dean be stopped?"

There has been a lot of talk about the inevitability of Hillary winning the nomination lately. Yes, she's running a very strong campaign and has large leads in national and New Hampshire polls, but take a look at poll results from around this time of the year in 2003.


Month Dean % Kerry %
October 03 40 17
September 03 30 20
August 03 38 17
June 03 22 25
February 03 13 26

Dean was sitting at 40% in late October, well ahead of Kerry, who was polling at 17%. Dean was actually gaining momentum, up from only 30% in September, and Kerry had fallen from 20% in September and appeared to have peaked with 26% in February of 2003.

Here's what John Zogby had to say:

“This is stunning. Dean leads 43-20 among Democrats and 35 to 11 among Independents. He hits 40 among all age groups, union and non-union voters. His lead is 57-17 among self-described progressives, 50-20 among liberals, and 34-14 among moderates. Married voters give him a 38-13 edge and singles a 45-21 point lead. He holds huge leads among all education groups, among investors and non-investors, men and women. This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?”

We all know how that turned out. Hillary is unlikely to have a "Dean Scream" type moment that kills her campaign, but the race is far from over. Edwards, Obama, and Clinton are virtually tied in Iowa (some polls show Obama with a slight lead), and if Hillary's campaign is going to be derailed, that's where it will happen.

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