A recent Pew poll reveals some pretty dramatic reversals in party identification within the last few years. The public was split 43/43 in Republican/Democrat identification in 2002, but Democrats have now taken a significant lead with 35/50 split this year. It's easy to rest the blame solely on George Bush's shoulders. And while his unpopularity certainly has helped open this gap (notice 35% is also his rough approval rating), the overall strategy of the Republican party was perhaps doomed to fail.

As Kevin Drum suggests, Republicans in the last decade have hitched their wagons to two issues: Tax cuts and "culture war" politics. Tax cuts are a cyclical, short-term issue that will probably always remain in the Republicans' political arsenal. You can't cut taxes forever, and voters understand that. But after Democrats regain power and eliminate tax cuts to make up for funding shortfalls, Republicans will probably once again dust off this issue.

But the real bread and butter of Karl Rove's party has been catering to social conservatives. And it worked for a while. They fired up voters about gay marriage; they riled up the public about Terry Schiavo. But what seemed like a regression destined to eliminate the hard-won progress of the last century turned out to be just a hiccup in the long, slow march toward social justice. America is getting more culturally liberal as time goes by, and not just in the short term.

It will be interesting to see how the Republican party reacts to this shift in the next election. Justin Gardner at Donklephant thinks the party is ready to embrace fiscally responsible, socially tolerant candidates such as Schwarzenegger and Giuliani. I agree, but I'm not convinced that it's happening yet. I think the Republican party will endure some serious internal struggles before the pendulum swings back to the right.