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January 30, 2007
Early numbers
A survey of likely primary voters in New Hampshire shows Hillary with a significant lead over Senators Obama and Edwards (40% to 25% and 23%, respectively) in the race for the Democratic nomination. A nationwide Newsweek poll gives Hillary a similar double-digit lead over Obama, 55% to 35%.
I don't get it. Where are these Hillary supporters? The consensus among bloggers is that a Clinton nomination would unify Republicans and is perhaps the only chance the GOP has at winning the 2008 election. When I speak with friends and family, most express trepidation over her ability to win and are much more enthusiastic about Barack Obama. Even those who like her don't like the idea of having three decades of combined Bush/Clinton governance.
Are the polls inaccurate? Granted, I haven't discussed the topic at length with a representative sample of Americans, but I think I would have trouble finding a single person who would emphatically pick Clinton over Obama or Edwards at this point.
It's too early to really make predictions. In 2003 and early 2004, we all thought Dean would run away with the nomination. But a cynical friend warned me: Follow the money; he predicted Kerry's financial dominance would secure him the nomination. And that seems to be the one area where Clinton can clearly take control.
Posted by Elyas Bakhtiari at 10:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 29, 2007
Waiting..
New numbers from Newsweek reveal that, not only is Bush's approval rating hitting a new low, but the majority of the country has given up on him. Fifty-eight percent of Americans say they wish the Bush presidency was already over. In addition to 86% of Democrats, this includes 59% of independents and 21%—roughly one in five—Republicans.
Perhaps even more significant, nearly half (48%) said their opinion of Bush will influence how they vote in '08. This definitely helps the Democrats. Clinton, Obama, and Edwards each out-poll leading Republican candidates McCain and Giuliani in heads up "mock elections." But it also helps moderate Republicans who ignore the Bush-Rove strategy of appealing to social conservatives on the far right. Like Democrats in 2004, Republican primary voters may be looking for Anyone But (another)Bush in 2008.
Posted by Elyas Bakhtiari at 11:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 15, 2007
MLK
From his Letter from Birmingham Jail:
We know through painful experience that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed. Frankly, I have yet to engage in a direct-action campaign that was "well timed" in the view of those who have not suffered unduly from the disease of segregation. For years now I have heard the word "Wait!" It rings in the ear of every Negro with piercing familiarity. This "Wait" has almost always meant 'Never." We must come to see, with one of our distinguished jurists, that "justice too long delayed is justice denied." ......We should never forget that everything Adolf Hitler did in Germany was "legal" and everything the Hungarian freedom fighters did in Hungary was "illegal." It was "illegal" to aid and comfort a Jew in Hitler's Germany. Even so, I am sure that, had I lived in Germany at the time, I would have aided and comforted my Jewish brothers. If today I lived in a Communist country where certain principles dear to the Christian faith are suppressed, I would openly advocate disobeying that country's antireligious laws...
...I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.
Posted by Elyas Bakhtiari at 9:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack