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Looking to the midterms: Shoring up the base

Bush’s recent actions on immigration have been linked by many to his need to shore up his support among his strict conservative base. Some have pointed out that with his horrendous approval ratings, Bush’s only feasible goal for the rest of 2006 is to take actions in support of Republicans in Congress to help their reelection campaigns. I think this is a good argument and one which applies not only to the domestic issues, but also international ones as well. For example:

Libya: Just this week Bush announced that full diplomatic ties will be restored because:

Libya had abandoned its nuclear and other unconventional weapons programs and helped in the campaign against terrorism.

I’ve often wondered why Bush didn’t play up Libya as a success in his campaign of pre-emptive war. Whether it was an oversight by his advisers or they were saving it for a rainy day, Bush is now cashing in on Qaddafi’s submission to US demands for WMD disarmament.

And just this morning…North Korea.

After a 53-year armistice, Bush has announced that the United States is prepared to enter negotiations for a peace treaty with the DPRK. As the NYT article points out, this marks a significant shift from administration policy when Bush first took office.

I believe that this shift marks another move by Bush to win favor for Republicans in Congress. By changing course, and hopefully moving discussions with the DPRK off dead center, Bush can point to another significant advance in the struggle against the Axis of Evil.

What remains is Bush’s response to Ahmadinejad’s letter. Will he use this as an opportunity to continue pushing a stubborn, unwavering US policy onto Iran, or will he take this opportunity to open an honest dialogue about what both sides want and need?

The Republicans have a strong election machine, and with one or two successes Bush should be able to get his numbers up enough to regain the parts of his base that have strayed. Rove certainly thinks this is the case:

His personal approval ratings are in the 60s. Job approval is lower. And what that says to me is that people like him, they respect him; he's somebody they feel a connection with, but they're just sour right now on the war.

Love him or hate him, Rove is a savvy political adviser and won’t pass up opportunities to boost Bush’s numbers between now and November. If the Democrats want to regain control of even one part of Congress they need to be proactive and get out there with a clear message of exactly what they would do better. This has been sorely missing from the Democratic party for some time, with the election results to prove it.

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Comments (2)

Washington Post has a good article addressing this topic today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/21/AR2006052101096.html

Posted by alec | May 22, 2006 1:30 PM

Will he use this as an opportunity to continue pushing a stubborn, unwavering US policy onto Iran, or will he take this opportunity to open an honest dialogue about what both sides want and need?

Posted by שש בש בחינם | July 19, 2006 7:16 AM

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