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May 22, 2006

Addressing Corruption in Russia

Unfortunately for many post-Soviet style countries, corruption has embedded itself deep into society, and has continued to influence all spheres of life. Democracy did not solve this problem, but rather turned the patronage system into an electable charity. Vladmir Putin, fresh off a state of the union address that championed domestic reform with not so subtle warnings to America, has promised recently to address the corruption that plagues the Russian bureaucracy. Pavel K. Baev writes:

The political buzz in Moscow in recent weeks has surrounded corruption, which, according to Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, "has acquired the character of a national threat" (Vremya novostei, May 16). No new data have emerged on the scale of this phenomenon, and in the latest Corruption Perception Index compiled by Transparency International, Russia still sits quietly in 126th place, between Niger and Sierra Leone.

The trigger for the new campaign was a phrase Putin used in the opening of his May 10 address to the parliament: "Despite all of the efforts we have made, we have still not yet managed to remove one of the greatest obstacles facing our development, that of corruption." The proposition was rather feeble and the quote from Franklin Delano Roosevelt -- on stepping on toes of those "comparative few who seek to retain or to gain position or riches or both by some short cut that is harmful to the greater good" -- added an unusual twist, but not much force. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, always attuned to signals from the Kremlin, immediately promised to take all necessary measures and show no mercy in "exterminating this evil" (Newsru.com, May 11). Then several mid-level officers from the Ministry of the Interior, the Customs Service, the Prosecutor's Office, and, most remarkably, the FSB were sacked. More extra-tough anti-corruption measures were promised, but on the closer look this sudden escalation of the eternal struggle involves several different policies and campaigns packed one inside another like a Russian matryoshka-doll.

The outer layer, the most elaborately decorated one, is a PR exercise where state-controlled TV channels provide calibrated spin for high-level state officials eager to demonstrate their zeal in implementing the president's orders. Picking a fight against corruption is always popular with the public, and the previous campaign, back in mid-2003, against "turncoats" or "werewolves" in the Ministry of Interior registered positively. The problem here is that, despite all propaganda efforts, the Russians are losing faith in this cause. In a new poll conducted by Ekho Moskvy radio (May 15), 93% expressed the opinion that Putin was not serious about that fight.

The next layer represents Putin's efforts at strengthening discipline in the vast Russian bureaucracy by activating the "fear factor." He has good reason to be irritated with the pattern whereby everybody around him is eager to agree with every word he says -- but it is impossible to get anything done. In the speech, Putin offered an interesting variation on the theme, reminding state officials about their "social responsibility" (Expert, May 15). That cliché had been previously applied to entrepreneurs as a means to force them to make contributions to various "good causes," such as the pro-Kremlin United Russia political party. Now the bureaucrats, who, according to Minister of Economic Development German Gref, are engaged in a "Bacchanalia" of confiscation of private businesses, are expected to demonstrate similar "philanthropic" activities (Vremya novostei, May 19).

The third layer constitutes a special case; namely, the grotesque forms of corruption in the Russian Customs Service (Ezhednevny zhurnal, May 17). In April, Putin expressed extreme irritation about the de-facto privatization of the customs sphere, where smart officials and entrepreneurs "merged in ecstasy" (Moscow News, April 21). The real source of that irritation was the fierce struggle between several semi-officials "clans" for control of the customs business, worth billions of U.S. dollars. Now, with the appointment of the new head of the Customs Service, who will answer directly to Fradkov, this struggle appears to be over and the winning clan has consolidated its monopoly with the sacking of the competitors compromised as insufficiently loyal to their minders in the FSB (Ekho Moskvy, May 17).

The fourth layer was appended to this "complex struggle" to add a regional dimension. Official letters were sent to four regions requesting the recall of their representatives to the Federation Council; no explanation was provided, but corruption was implied by combining this demarche in one "news item" with other reshuffles. The reaction, however, was not exactly to Moscow's liking: First the parliament of Khakassiya refused to recall its "senator," and then the parliament of the Nenets okrug followed suit (Vedomosti, May 19). The federal center decided to raise the stakes and hit back with a criminal case against Alexei Barinov, the governor of the second mutinous "subject" (Kommersant, May 20). Other regions may join this tug-of-war with their particular grievances, but corruption appears to be just a smoke screen for these complicated intrigues.

The fifth and most secretive layer consists of the reshufflings in the FSB where two generals from the department for the protection of constitutional order and the struggle against terrorism were sacked (Novaya gazeta, May 15). Nikolai Patrushev, the director of the FSB, proudly reported last week on the impressive achievements in the war against terror, but the good PR was spoiled by a series of ambushes in Chechnya, clashes in Dagestan, and the assassination of a Deputy Minister of Interior in Ingushetia (Ezhednevny zhurnal, May 19; see EDM, May 19). The blame was duly allocated to those who cannot produce tangible arguments in their defense, but corruption was merely a cover-up for the increasingly bitter internal squabbles in the all-powerful "special service."

In a traditional Russian matryoshka doll, the smallest figure is solid, but in Putin's fight against corruption, beneath all the layers there appears to be just emptiness. In his overgrown state machine, which expanded by some 11% last year, corruption is not a side effect; it is the very mode of existence. The state spreads in every direction from its "commanding heights" in the economy by legalizing bureaucratic extortion and it asserts its dominance over society by monopolizing the distribution of the petro-ruble pot. The corrupt appetites are growing even faster than the oil revenues, and Putin's dietary prescriptions could not make even the slightest impression on the obesity of his predatory system.

Posted by Alec at 1:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 18, 2006

Looking to the midterms: Shoring up the base

Bush’s recent actions on immigration have been linked by many to his need to shore up his support among his strict conservative base. Some have pointed out that with his horrendous approval ratings, Bush’s only feasible goal for the rest of 2006 is to take actions in support of Republicans in Congress to help their reelection campaigns. I think this is a good argument and one which applies not only to the domestic issues, but also international ones as well. For example:

Libya: Just this week Bush announced that full diplomatic ties will be restored because:

Libya had abandoned its nuclear and other unconventional weapons programs and helped in the campaign against terrorism.

I’ve often wondered why Bush didn’t play up Libya as a success in his campaign of pre-emptive war. Whether it was an oversight by his advisers or they were saving it for a rainy day, Bush is now cashing in on Qaddafi’s submission to US demands for WMD disarmament.

And just this morning…North Korea.

After a 53-year armistice, Bush has announced that the United States is prepared to enter negotiations for a peace treaty with the DPRK. As the NYT article points out, this marks a significant shift from administration policy when Bush first took office.

I believe that this shift marks another move by Bush to win favor for Republicans in Congress. By changing course, and hopefully moving discussions with the DPRK off dead center, Bush can point to another significant advance in the struggle against the Axis of Evil.

What remains is Bush’s response to Ahmadinejad’s letter. Will he use this as an opportunity to continue pushing a stubborn, unwavering US policy onto Iran, or will he take this opportunity to open an honest dialogue about what both sides want and need?

The Republicans have a strong election machine, and with one or two successes Bush should be able to get his numbers up enough to regain the parts of his base that have strayed. Rove certainly thinks this is the case:

His personal approval ratings are in the 60s. Job approval is lower. And what that says to me is that people like him, they respect him; he's somebody they feel a connection with, but they're just sour right now on the war.

Love him or hate him, Rove is a savvy political adviser and won’t pass up opportunities to boost Bush’s numbers between now and November. If the Democrats want to regain control of even one part of Congress they need to be proactive and get out there with a clear message of exactly what they would do better. This has been sorely missing from the Democratic party for some time, with the election results to prove it.

Posted by Potter at 6:26 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 16, 2006

Is this what the immigration debate is really about?

I just heard this on The Colbert Report and had to look it up for myself. Last week, John Gibson on Fox News said this:

"...half the kids under 5 years old in this country are minorities. By far, the greatest number are Hispanic. Know what that means? Twenty-five years and the majority population is Hispanic ... To put it bluntly: We need more babies."

It's hard to look at this as anything other than not-too-subtle racism. Is this what people are really worried about when they talk about the illegal immigration and securing the borders?

Posted by Elyas Bakhtiari at 8:48 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Is immigration the gay marriage of 2006?

Remember 2004? You know, the last election year. Remember how half the country was afraid gays getting married was on the verge of sending the country spiraling down a path of ruin? It was mentioned in every political speech. Legislation was enacted. People protested.

How often do you hear about it now? In Massachusetts, where gay marriage was legalized, a few conservative protestors are still fighting to ban it, but other than that, it has virtually disappeared off the radar. It was a hot button topic for one year, designed to get socially conservative voters to the poll to help Bush win the election.

And it worked brilliantly.

But is the current immigration debate the same kind of election-year hot button issue? Maybe. Just like gay marriage, the "immigration problem" is a scare tactic that feeds off masked discrimination and separatism. However, Bush et al probably won't have the same success with this issue as with the last. Aside from militarizing the border with 6,000 national guard troops, his plan was fairly moderate and reasonable, in part because of his stint as governor of a border state.

And as phronesisaical points out, Bush's immigration speech isn't going over well with hardline conservatives.

Posted by Elyas Bakhtiari at 7:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 8, 2006

Victims of Their Own Vote

In an ideal world, economic sanctions against a country culpable of having a malicious leader or government promote grassroots change. The short version scenario is those responsible for the existence of sanctions, such as Saddam Hussein during the 1990's or Hamas currently in Palestine, will be 'starved' out of office by being unable to provide basic amenities to its constituency. The idea is that food, medicine, and jobs will be so uncertain that public desperation will facilitate regime change, either peaceful or violent.

However, idealism falls on its heels as the opposite often occurs: the Regime is not seen as the harbinger of poverty, but the victim of it. In the end, extreme poverty fosters a counter-productive extremist reaction in citizens: a disdain for those carrying out sanctions and sympathy for the government, consequently consolidating power instead of destabilizing it.

The current situation in Palestine reflects this reality. Hamas has existed as a militant Islamic organization since 1987 and recently won democratic elections in Palestine. The accepted but ill-perceived position in the West, perpetuated by pro-Israeli Think Tanks such as the Washington Institute (for evidence, read this report following the Palestinian elections), is that a terrorist organization was elected for being terrorist. In reality, Hamas was elected in a primarily two-party state (Fatah being the other legitimate party), not for it's positions towards Israel, but for not being corrupt and hopefully being able to provide basic services Fatah failed to provide.

The situation has escalated since money from the United States, European Union, and the UN have dwindled to pay for government salaries and food and medical supplies. The New York Times covers the despair in Gaza in

Already, says Al Shifa's general director, Dr. Ibrahim al-Habbash, the hospital can no longer provide chemotherapy for many forms of cancer, has only a few days' supply of important surgical drugs like atropine, adrenaline, heparin and lidocaine, and has used up its strategic three-month cache normally kept for a health crisis.
..."We've suffered in the past, of course, but in the last month, the problems have really increased," Dr. Habbash said. "There are shortages of medications and disposables in all departments, we're trying to limit the operating list and people are suffering, even dying, because of these shortages."

But his anger is a sign of the mounting frustration over the gaps in health care here, which are a result of a double crisis: the budget deficit in the Palestinian Authority — which has worsened significantly since Israel stopped transferring tax collections, and the United States and the European Union cut off aid after the Hamas government took over — and the inability to get goods into Gaza through the main crossing point at Karni, which the Israelis keep closing whenever there is a security alert.

But the victims of the sanctions that have denied them even the most simple health care do not reflect their anger at Hamas or the extremism that may be part author of these problems:

"I borrow from friends and have no more credit at the grocery store," Mr. Siam said. "Unfortunately, the whole world has chosen to punish us for our vote for Hamas. And I also blame everyone who calls himself a Muslim and who does not help us."
...In the dialysis ward of Shifa Hospital, Ahmed Shabat, 51, sits in fraying clothes. He must come every other day. "This is my work," he says, then shows the swollen veins on his arms caused by a lack of mineral supplements normally provided. "What is the relationship between humanitarian and political aims here?" he asked. "The United States is the mother of democracy. What is political about salaries to teachers and nurses? Please," he said, "please don't mix humanitarian help with politics. Please separate the two."

Further, by starving the constituency, sanctions against the Palestinian government have aggravated tensions between Fatah and Hamas.

"The fighting was the latest sign that the two sides could be sliding toward large-scale clashes. Each group has been training its gunmen for possible confrontation, and Hamas recently outbid Fatah in buying a black market shipment of 100,000 bullets.
... Hamas and the moderate Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, of Fatah, have been wrangling over power, particularly over control of the security forces, and the friction has been compounded by a growing financial crisis - a result of Western economic sanctions against the Hamas-led government."

While in the comforts of the West, it may be easy for one to denounce Islam, terrorism, and a broad section of the world as perpetuating violence and extremism, the results of such saber rattling have facilitated the demise of the moderate voice in the Middle East. Emboldening those in power and demoralizing the constituency, economic sanctions in Palestine have facilitated conflict and destabilization in a region that the West cannot allow to descend further into anarchy and tyranny.

Posted by Alec at 2:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Nuestro Himno

- U.S. government in the early 21st century: A Spanish-language national anthem is un-American.
- U.S. government in the early 20th century: A Spanish-language national anthem is cool with us. So are Polish, French, Italian, Portuguese and Armenian versions.

Posted by Elyas Bakhtiari at 9:05 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 4, 2006

Recycled Air

In the wake of recent racially motivated attacks, such as the brutal stabbing of an Amerinian in the middle of the day in Moscow, it is well timed that a recent report by Amnesty International has stated that Russian racism is 'out of control'.

The report into violent racism shows that at least 28 people were killed and 366 were assaulted in 2005. This year there have already been a number of high-profile cases, including the death of a Senegalese student.
Amnesty condemns discrimination by the authorities and a failure to properly record or investigate racist crimes.The Amnesty report, entitled "Russian Federation: Violent racism out of control", includes examples of police and prosecutors routinely classifying murders and serious assaults by skinhead extremists as lesser crimes of "hooliganism".

Posted by Alec at 4:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Thursday Numbers: The American Dream

From Reuters:

- Chances a child born into a poor family has of making it into the richest five percent: 1%
- Chances a child born into a rich family has of being rich as an adult: 22%
- Percentage of Americans who believe it is possible to start poor and become rich through hard work: 80%
- Percentage of white families who start poor and remain poor: 32%
- Percentage of black families who start poor and remain poor: 63%

The study also "found the United States had one of the lowest levels of inter-generational mobility in the wealthy world, on a par with Britain but way behind most of Europe."

As Steven Colbert recently said: I believe in pulling yourself up by your own bootstraps. I believe it is possible -- I saw this guy do it once in Cirque du Soleil. It was magical.

Hat tip: Donklephant

Posted by Elyas Bakhtiari at 7:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack