In today's South China Morning Post (no story link as I'm going off the print edition that I was reading over breakfast) there was an article about the latest in the ebb and flow of protests in China over land seizures by the government. This instance involved a sit in protests staged just outside of Tianjin, the main port city outside Beijing, where the protesters cited comments by Premier Wen Jiabao as evidence of their rights to the land. On Tuesday Wen stated that:
We need to respect the democratic rights of the farmers, especially their right to independently operate their contracted land.
The article noted that Wen gave no specifics on what this meant, however protesters have latched onto this statement as proof that the local government must listen to their demands.
I find this anj interesting development in what has been a very tense situation in China over the last year. The SCMP quotes government reports that show "public order disturbances" having risen by 6.6% last year and "mass gatherings that disturbed social order" as having risen 13%. As you may recall, in December an estimated 20 protesters were killed by police in Guangdong province, an event which is still causing headaches for China.
Wen, speaking for the top levels of the Communist Party, has used the opportunity to < a href="http://english.people.com.cn/200603/14/eng20060314_250552.html">blame lower echelons of the government as a way of resolving the social problems without the central government losing face. This is an interesting way for them to deal with the situation without actually dealing with it as it allows the CCP to institute reform without itself being in the wrong. One would hope that this approach means that there is a real chance for reform under the guise of correcting deficiencies in the lower levels of the party and government.
However, I caution against too much hope in this regard. If I may quote some statistics that I was shown by a sociologist inside China (and told not to divulge the source), something like 70% of the population believes that the problems they face are the result of mistakes by local and district level government and that the central government can fix the situation. Startlingly, that confidence in the central government falls to 25% after people make their appeals to the central apparatus. Now these numbers are several years old but they do not speak well of the Center's ability to deal with these issues.
Though I would like to believe that the recent statements by Wen indicate a shift in the government's posture, history doesn't suggest that any big changes will really be made. However, perhaps this is a harbinger of a gradual shift in government policy that would give more rights (at least in regards to land) to the people. I am hesitant to make this suggestion as the situation in China changes at a very slow pace and one cannot expect anything to happen in the next year or even five years.
My biggest fear is that the changes needed to at least appease the population will not be made in time for the 2008 and that shortly before, or during, the Olympics there will be massive protest and subsequent crackdown. Only time will tell. If in the next year the number of protests continue to rise, China could be in for some major clashes between the people and the CCP.
Like this post? Get updates via|